The "New" Job Market

Challenges and Solutions

Gonzalo Contento · @GonzaloContento

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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us [...]

in short, the period was so far like the present period.

— Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities (1859)

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Me?

  • X: @GonzaloContento
  • "PhD" from YouTube
  • "Masters" from Instagram
  • 30+ years in the industry
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I'm not a Tourist

Robert Cornelius, 1839 — the first ever selfie.

publicdomainreview.org

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Do We Have a Problem?

"Houston, we've had a problem here."

Apollo 13, 1970 — the actual quote, in past tense. We tend to narrate the crisis after it has already begun.

Photo: NASA (public domain)

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It's Not in Your Head

  • 18–22% of active job listings are ghost jobs — roles never meant to be filled. Up from 12–15% in 2022.
  • 36% of job seekers applied last year to at least one position that was never filled.
  • −13% employment for early-career workers (22–25) in the most AI-exposed occupations since ChatGPT.
  • 39% of core job skills will change by 2030 — 92 M jobs displaced, 170 M created.
  • 60 days for ChatGPT to reach 100 M users. Instagram needed 2.5 years.

WSJ (2025) · Greenhouse Candidate Experience Report (2025) · Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Canaries in the Coal Mine (2025) · WEF Future of Jobs Report (2025) · UBS (2023)

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What you are supposed to care about

  • Sara Imari Walker — how life emerges from non-life; Assembly Theory as a measure of complexity.
  • Edward Witten — Morse theory, knot theory, and M-theory unifying the string landscape.
  • Nima Arkani-Hamed — replacing space-time with more fundamental structures like quantum geometry.

Important, fascinating, and almost entirely orthogonal to what pays your rent.

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What you actually care about

  • Vision — of your future.
  • Jobs — BS jobs, ghost jobs, "investment" jobs (taken for access and learning, not salary).
  • Money — all kinds of it.
  • Social relevance (not social appearances).
  • Emotional connection.
  • Solidarity vs. handouts.
  • Social mobility vs. meritocracy.
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Die Masse der Menschen führt ein Leben
in stiller Verzweiflung.
Was man Ergebung nennt,
ist bestätigte Verzweiflung.

— Henry David Thoreau

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The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.
What is called resignation is confirmed desperation.

— Henry David Thoreau, Walden (1854)

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Market vs. Economy

We live in a global market, and we must compete not just to survive but to thrive — while the economy we actually live in is stubbornly local.

Your competition is in Bangalore and Bogotá. Your rent is on your street.

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Opportunity vs. Meritocracy

Historical & contemporary context —

  • Yuval Noah Harari — Sapiens: careers, companies, money — shared fictions, and fictions can be rewritten.
  • Richard Wolff — Understanding Capitalism: wages are a power negotiation, not a fairness formula.
  • Michael Sandel — The Tyranny of Merit: meritocracy is the story the winners tell themselves.
  • Scott Galloway — The Algebra of Wealth: the market pays ownership and leverage, not effort.
  • Jeffrey Sachs — prosperity is engineered, never granted.
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Revenge of the Nerd

"If you build it, he will come."

— Field of Dreams

The quiet, patient builder has the advantage again.

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Fictions! | Fictions?

  • Stories
  • Myths
  • Agency
  • Corporations
  • LLMs

The things that move the world are almost never physically real.

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Time is (isn't) on your side

You will need not merely to invent new ideas and products — you will above all need to reinvent yourself again and again.

— Yuval Noah Harari, Sapiens

David Brooke Martin / Unsplash — free to use

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Perspective Matters

  • 4.5 B years — Planet
  • 6 M years — Apes / humans
  • 70 K years — Fictive language
  • 12 K years — Agriculture
  • ~3000 BCE — Hinduism
  • ~500 BCE — The Buddha
  • 2 K years — Christianity
  • 1440 — Gutenberg printing press
  • 1760 — Industrial Revolution
  • 1947 — Transistor
  • 1971 — End of gold standard
  • 1991 — World Wide Web
  • 2007 — iPhone
  • 2016 — DeepMind AlphaGo
  • 2017 — Transformers (attention)
  • 2019 — GPT-2: too dangerous to release
  • 2020 — GPT-3: language at scale
  • 2022 — ChatGPT: AI goes consumer
  • 2023 — GPT-4, Claude: multimodal
  • 2025 — Agents: from tools to actors
  • 2026 — AI joins the workforce
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The 4Cs

An education based only on Skills vs. the 4Cs —

  • Critical thinking
  • Creativity
  • Communication
  • Collaboration

Partnership for 21st Century Learning (P21, 2002)

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Five Hundred Dollars

"Mr. Bixby, will you teach me the river?"
"For what?"
"For anything you choose to ask."
"Well, sir — I'll take five hundred dollars."
"All right."

A pilot, in those days, was the only unfettered and entirely
independent human being that lived in the earth.

— Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi (1883)

F.F. Palmer / Currier & Ives, A Midnight Race on the Mississippi (1860) — public domain

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Things we need to let go

"Let go, Luke."

Entitlement. Titles. The idea that the last 30 years of rules will describe the next 30.

© Lucasfilm / Disney — Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back (1980)

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Things we need to cultivate

Patience. Craft. Depth.

Like coffee in the Colombian highlands — the things worth having are slow, deliberate, and compounding.

Juan Nino / Unsplash — free to use

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Self Reliance (Agency and AI)

"Trust thyself: every heart vibrates to that iron string."

— Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803–1882)

In a world where the machines will do the averaging for you, the only durable signal is the part of yourself nobody can replicate.

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Universal Basic Income (UBI)

  • Why? Hyper-automation, and humans' inability to keep up with AI.
  • How? The pilots ran — Finland: wellbeing up; Stockton: full-time work 28% → 40%; Kenya: more businesses, not less work.
  • Who? 3.8 B people — half of humanity — have no social protection (ILO).
  • When? 92 M jobs displaced by 2030 (WEF) — sooner than the techno-feudalists say.
  • CUBI — Conditional UBI: tied to participation, not entitlement.
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References

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Q&A

We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven; that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

— Alfred Lord Tennyson, Ulysses (1842)

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GENERATED — do not edit this file directly. Edit fragments in ./slides/ and rebuild with: ./build.sh en Fragment list: manifest.en.txt

Open cold. The quotes around "New" are the whole thesis: the job market isn't new — our awareness of it is. QR up front so latecomers can grab the deck; one beat, then straight into the epigraph.

Dickens, 1859, reading like 2026: every generation is convinced its disruption is unprecedented. Read the full sentence out loud, slowly — "so far like the present period" gets the laugh, and the laugh is the thesis.

"PhD from YouTube / Masters from Instagram" is self-deprecating on purpose — it disarms credentialism before the talk attacks it. The real credential is the 30+ years; the joke buys permission for everything that follows.

Cornelius had to hold still for many minutes for the first selfie to develop (1839). Point: I'm not passing through this topic — I've been sitting in it long enough for the image to develop. Sets up "evidence, not opinions."

The real Apollo 13 line is past tense: "we've HAD a problem." We narrate crises after they've already begun — careers included. Optional: show of hands — "who here thinks the market is fine?" Then advance to the numbers.

The previous slide asked "do we have a problem?" — this one answers it with receipts, before anyone can say it's anecdote. Walk the numbers top to bottom: the listings are partly fake (ghost jobs), the applications go nowhere (36%), the bottom rung of the career ladder is being sawed off (Stanford: −13% for the youngest workers in AI-exposed jobs), the skill set itself has a half-life (39% by 2030), and the technology causing it adopted faster than anything in consumer history (60 days). Same story in the US and in LatAm: the funnel is broken everywhere; only the safety nets differ. Key line: "You are not failing the market. The market is measuring something new, and nobody handed you the new ruler."

Genuinely admire these three scientists — that's the trap of the slide. Don't mock the science; mock the distance. The gap between what's celebrated as important and what pays your rent is the first crack in the map.

This is the audience's real agenda, said out loud. Pause on "investment jobs" — most people have taken one without having the word for it. "Solidarity vs. handouts" lands differently in the US and in LatAm; name that difference and let it sit.

Thoreau in German, deliberately: the audience should feel the disorientation before the meaning. Ask the room to guess the author. Reveal on the next slide.

The reveal: Thoreau, Walden, 1854 — "quiet desperation" predates LinkedIn by 170 years. "Resignation is confirmed desperation" — resignation is the enemy this talk is aimed at.

Core disjunction of the whole talk: the market is global, the economy you live in is local. "Your competition is in Bangalore and Bogotá; your rent is on your street." For a LatAm room, flip it: you ARE the Bogotá competition — the same arbitrage can favor you.

This slide used to be a reading list; now each author carries one blade of the argument. Sequence: Harari says the rules are fictions → Wolff says the fiction is negotiated by power → Sandel says the fiction blames you for losing → Galloway says what the fiction actually pays → Sachs says it can still be engineered differently. "Opportunity vs. meritocracy" is the LatAm/US bridge: the US tells you failure is your fault; much of LatAm never believed the game was fair to begin with. Both audiences recognize Sandel instantly, from opposite directions.

Field of Dreams (1989): faith in building before the audience exists. AI collapses the cost of building, so the quiet, patient builder gets leverage back. "Nerd" here is a temperament — someone who compounds quietly — not an IQ score.

Harari by way of Borges: money, corporations, agency, LLMs — none physically real, all of them move the world. In Tlön, an invented encyclopedia gradually replaces reality. If the rules are fictions, they can be rewritten — that's the hope hidden inside this slide.

Harari: you will need to reinvent yourself again and again. The Milky Way makes time both vast and indifferent — that's the double meaning of "is (isn't) on your side." Bridge to the timeline on the next slide.

The move: zoom out to 4.5 B years, then watch the right-hand column compress — everything below the Web fits inside one working lifetime. Whoever in the room started their career in 1991 has already lived through more technological turnover than the previous ten generations combined. That's the point: reinvention is not a personal failure, it's the era. 2026 row: entry-level work is where AI landed first (Stanford data, previous slides).

P21 framework dates to 2002 — two decades before ChatGPT, which is the point: the 4Cs were always the durable layer. WEF Future of Jobs 2025 top skills (analytical thinking, creative thinking, resilience, collaboration) are basically the 4Cs renamed. Skills get you the interview; the 4Cs survive the automation.

Twain, Life on the Mississippi: the cub pilot commits $500 he doesn't have to learn a skill he doesn't have — and the river pilot was "the only unfettered and entirely independent human being." Claim the skill, then rise to it. Exact twin of "yo soy aserrador" in the Spanish edition.

"Let go, Luke." Entitlement, titles, the assumption that the last 30 years' rules describe the next 30. In both cultures titles are identity — this is the emotionally hardest slide of the deck. Slow down here.

Arabica takes 3–4 years to first harvest and 6–8 to full production (National Coffee Association). Nobody yells at the tree to grow faster. Patience, craft, depth: the anti-ghost-job portfolio. Colombian highlands — home ground for the ES audience.

Emerson, 1841: the iron string. When machines do the averaging, the un-averageable part of you is the only moat. Agency is the new literacy — self-reliance is not isolation, it's authorship.

The point is not to advocate UBI — it's to move it from ideology to math. The three pilots answer the standard objection ("people will stop working") with data: Finland's employment effect was slightly positive; Stockton recipients moved INTO full-time work at twice the control rate; in Kenya nobody worked less, they started businesses. The ILO figure replaces the old unverified "67% of humanity" line: 3.8 B people have no net under them at all — that's the real "who". CUBI is my own framing — participation, not entitlement. Expect pushback from both sides; that's the sign it's calibrated.

Everything cited in the talk lives at gc2.me/refs, updated continuously. Invite follow-ups on X / LinkedIn rather than trying to read sources off the slide.

Close with Tennyson's Ulysses: "that which we are, we are." Not motivation — recognition: made weak by time and fate, still striving. Leave it on screen during Q&A.